Things to Know About the RotoUmpire

Below is a list of things to understand when submitting a deal or Things to know before signing on to the RotoUmpire service. Bear in mind that this is not a complete list of all the aspects taken into account when we review a trade, but just some of the ones that people most often wonder about.

1. You have to assume we know more than you do. We aren't saying we do, but for the service to work for you, you have to put aside your own biases, preferences, loyalties, knowledge, etc. In fact, that's why we're here - because almost everyone has those traits, an outside party is almost the only fair way to help determine the equity of a deal.

2. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Ever since Albert Pujols burst onto the scenemany years ago, people have become rookie obsessed. Most people don't want to realize that there's only one or two Pujols in a rotisserie lifetime. We will almost NEVER give a minor leaguer with no major league experience close to equal weight to that of a producing player currently in the majors, no matter the salaries or contracts involved. The same holds true for NFL rookies; they just don't produce as well as seasoned vets (except in very rare occasions). There are far too many things that can happen between now and whenever that player makes the majors, and especially ONCE that player makes the majors, to equate him in value to currently producing player. There are, of course exceptions. For example, the later in the year it gets, the more justification we see for getting a player who could help for next year for a player that has value this year. Also, there are the obvious blue chip prospects who so destroy minor league opponents that their success seems inevitable. But overall, performing players will always have more value than future gambles.

3. We will never accept quantity as a substitute for quality. You might have five guys at a $1 salary. They may all be mediocre to useless players - but just because they are $1 doesn't mean they are keepers, and it doesn't mean that trading all five of those guys for a stud will pass. You might have 5 Ryan Church clones. Just because TOGETHER, they have more HR than Joe Mauer does right now, it doesn't mean that's a fair deal.

4. A low salary does not a keeper make. Tied in to point #3. Just because someone has a low salary, if he's not performing any better than the season before (in the case of guys who were recently drafted), there's no reason to think he wouldn't go for the same salary next year. Or if he's a rookie and putting up mediocre numbers, his performance will speak more loudly than his name.

5. An umpire can not change a strike call. So, a RotoUmpire can not change a trade call. The nature of the business is fraught with opinions, and there's usually going to be someone who agrees with our call, and someone who disagrees. Unless we make a glaring error (such as misreading the league rules or confusing similarly named players or having a brain fart and going back 2 years to the old team of the player), our decisions are final.

6. Scarcity is important. Top Hitters at thin positions, 5 category hitters, High-K pitchers, closers, high volume HR and/or SB guys in baseball. Gronk-like Tight Ends in football. These players all have something in common - there aren't a whole lot of players in the general pool that can do what they do. So that means that they will have a little more value than the average player because of that. It's called scarcity - it doesn't necessarily give them god-like value, but a guy who gets 30 steals and 30 HR will have more value than the guy who just hits HR, if everything else is equal. Same holds true for a top tight end who will catch nearly a 100 balls for over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns; they just don't come along very often and they give the fantasy team who owns them a big advantage over their competition.

7. There's no magic bullet. Or a magical formula, for that matter, that magically tells you if a trade is fair or not. There are so many extraneous, non-statistical factors that have to be taken into consideration that it's unrealistic to think that numbers can tell who is best in their own. Therefore, most of our analyses are based heavily on opinion. Opinions formed from many years of being involved in the industry, reading multiple sources, analyzing statistics, staying on top of news, etc. Because it's an opinion, we've been wrong from time to time on players who suddenly and inexplicably turned it around or got red hot, or in the same vein, got ice cold or got hurt or whatever. But we make the most educated guesses and try to give the players their proper value at the time of the deal.

8. Keepers have more weight at the end of the season than at the beginning. We will not give keepers much value early in the season for a couple of reasons. The main reason is that there are twelve months before the next season and a whole lot can happen in those twelve months. As the season gets passed the midway point, we give more weight to keepers. Fantasy teams will know where they stand - whether they can make a run at the title or have to play for next year. Trading a high-priced star for a potential keeper during the first couple weeks of the season does not make a whole lot of sense, so we don't give it a whole lot of merit. A deal like that may be failed early, but be a perfectly acceptable trade late in the season.