ViewPoint
April 18, 2005
Written by MadAlan

Three of the Bad Boys

Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers and his company, Rogers Communication Corporation, bought the Sky Dome this off-season and promptly changed the name of the place to Rogers Centre. The park is being refurbished with new turf and scoreboards and other loud and clever eye-catchers, and soon the roster will be augmented with more high-priced players. Rogers recently committed $210 million over the next three years to the team's player payroll. That breaks down to $50 million this season and $160 million over the next two. The infusion of dollars will be greatly appreciated by fans. Far and away the best player they owned left at the peak of his career and the Blue Birds got nothing but an empty Delgado locker to fill. The team they end the season with in September may look a lot different from the unit that heads to Florida in a year from now. You must appreciate what they are trying to do, build a quality team on the cheap. Then Canadian taxes and the cost of living enter into a players mind when considering playing in Canada.

“We’ve got a huge RBI hole to fill and I think it will take a few players to do it.” – Manager John Gibbons.

Replacing Delgado's offense is probably impossible to fill in the short term. The job of replacing Delgado at first will fall to Eric Hinske, who is moving across the diamond from third thanks to the signing of native Canadian, and former hockey goalie Corey “I get injured each season” Koskie. The initial plan is for Koskie to replace Delgado in the cleanup spot…good luck with that, eh. Backing both of them up will be Shea Hillenbrand, who was acquired in a January trade from the Diamondbacks in exchange for pitcher Adam Peterson. Hillenbrand will DH when he's not filling in for Koskie or Hinske. Scary, eh?

Are you wondering what to think of center fielder Vernon Wells, not me, I know, last season was an injury-burp in his career. He followed up a breakout 2003 campaign with a 2004 season that left anyone who had him on his or her team quite disappointed. Wells' average dropped 45 points, his home runs dipped 10, and his RBI fell by 50. Fifty is an entire season worth of RBIs for 39% of all major league hitters. Two factors led to the collapse of Wells. First, he dropped 20 pounds before the season. Second, a right calf injury cost him a month of playing time. The good news is that Vernon finished the 2004 campaign on a high note by being named the MVP of the series between Major-League All-Stars and Japanese teams across the Pacific. Moreover, he has hit the weights again this off-season and bulked back up. That being said, he will miss not having Delgado's bat behind him in the lineup. The Jays will be tempted to use Wells as their cleanup hitter, but if they bat him third at least he'll have some protection in the form of Koskie. They are serious, stop laughing.

Behind the dish, the Jays plan to bring Greg Myers in as the backup to starter Gregg Zaun, but that could change. Prospect Guillermo Quiroz could push for the backup gig with a huge March. They'd like to get him some more seasoning down at Triple-A Syracuse, but if age and more injuries catch up to Myers this spring they may not have a choice. Consider avoiding the catchers in Toronto.

This is a team well equipped at present to play “small-ball” and be a success at it. The best hitter, Wells, can power liners in the alleys all day long. – Madalan.

Orlando Hudson is a quick, smart, work-in-progress with a 20-homer bat and about 80 RBIs coming to his owners this year, he moves up in class. Russ Adams now plays short everyday to begin the season. Adams is one of those power-hitting shortstops that play the field well too. Adams is two years away from being in the Angel Berroa league of shortstops, which will be a very good compliment after this year. They have few other infielders of note.

Frank Catalanotto is still walking, now playing in left only, they say, so we could expect him to gather an entire season of at-bats for him – 350 tops. Those at-bats can produce havoc on the opposition but require a player to cover for him in the field and on the bases. That is where they envision playing Reed Johnson. The problem is he is the best fielder and base runner amongst the outfielders. Enter Rookie Gabe Gross, as the only outfielder in the organization better than Johnson. Gross pointed out during spring that he has good power to all fields and he will stretch-out the arms of players by going for the extra base when possible. As far as the outfield is concerned, Gabe Gross was not expected to make the club out of spring training, after batting .400 with eight home runs and eighteen RBI, he has given the Jays a reason to give him a look and put him on the active roster. He will be worth the cost of the ticket to watch him play in two years. His reputation has not mentioned much about bunch’s of home runs, so that may be an apparition, but he is built for power and the Blue Jays are desperate for power.

Alexis Rios plays a corner outfield with an above average arm, decent speed, little power, easily fooled by outside-breaking balls and is a generally a poor base runner – he plays every day.

The Blue Jays traded for 21-year-old pitcher Chad Gaudin, who split time between Triple-A Durham and Tampa last season. Infielder John McDonald was acquired from the Indians for a player to be named and it is possible he may have his career year now. That does not mean go get him. About Gaudin, he has a sparkling up side and late last season he seemed to have begun to understand, then Pineilla said good-bye and he is now in Toronto. He will win a dozen or more games this year. He could surprise with 18 wins too. Watch him develop.

Throughout this spring the main question regarding the Blue Jays was ‘how will their pitching roster shape up.’ Before spring training began, the organization announced that Justin Speier would be their closer, the sun set, the moon set then they did a 360 degree turn after the spring training games started and announced rookie Gustavo Chacin has won a rotation spot and that Miquel Batista would be the Jays closer.

The rotation begins with Roy Halladay, the 2003 Cy Young award winner was limited to just 21 starts last year because of a tired shoulder. Go figure; he led the American League in innings pitched in 2002 and 2003 and before that was injured with a bad elbow. Roy ended the forgettable '04 season by beating the Yankees, holding them to one run in eight innings. He then cut back on what had been an arduous off-season throwing program with the hope of growing stronger as this season progresses. Get a good look at him this spring because there is nothing wrong with his arm and he could once again become one of the top hurlers in fantasy baseball.

Batista has the Jays a little screwed-up. He was a starter at the beginning of last year, but was ultimately demoted to the bullpen and wound up as their closer for the final four weeks of the season. He was slotted back into their rotation as the third starter by default. It will be interesting to follow him this spring to see if his control has improved. Last year he tied for most walks in the league despite the time spent in the bullpen.

The final spot in the rotation is there for the taking for Josh Towers. Barring a horrible spring, he'll get the job. But there's always competition at the end of the rotation and the Jays will have it in the form of Gustavo Chacin, who led the minor leagues with 18 wins last year and then posted a 2.57 ERA and 1-1 mark in two starts for Toronto at the end of the season. At seasons beginning he has moved all the way up into the No. 2 spot right behind Halladay.

David Bush will get the ball for the home opener on April 8 against the Boston Red Sox. The Jays have set a tentative target date of April 10 for when Lilly will be activated from the disabled list.

Free agency acquisitions include pitchers Scott Schoeneweis, Scott Downs, and Billy Koch. Yes, Koch is a Blue Jay again. Avoid all of the players that I have mentioned above, they all are not going to help any Fantasy team to be a winner. The bullpen now is Justin Speier, and Jason Frasor, who was their best reliever last year. Keep an eye on Brandon League, a flame-throwing right-hander who turns just 22 in March. League was lights out in his September cup of coffee in Toronto and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Given the lack of strikeout arms in their pen, it would not surprise to see League break camp as a reliever. Miguel Batista, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier all had guaranteed spots in the Jays bullpen as spring training opened. Going into the first week of “games” seven pitchers were battling for the final spots in the bullpen.

The Jays have soured on Kerry Ligtenberg and the reliever is not expected to remain much longer. Vinnie Chulk and Pete Walker pitched their way on the team and have appeared to capture the final two spots in the bullpen. Walker pitched in six games this spring, starting three of them, and went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. In twelve innings he allowed just five hits and struck out fourteen batters.

Forecast: Last in the division.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have created 12 straight losing seasons for their fans but did balance their budget. They tied with the Brewers for the longest bad streak in the Majors. Last season 3 teams scored fewer runs, while only two hit fewer home runs and none accepted fewer walks. One who did draw walks was Kendall. The Pirates used 13 players (10 fielders, three pitchers) in their 10-1 Opening Day win in 2003, and of those 13, only shortstop Jack Wilson is still with the club. This roster has undergone quite a few changes over the past couple seasons, and the skipper might need to carry around sheets of player pictures and names. That doesn't mean the Pirates are bad or can't help fantasy teams.

The Pirates bit on a trade for catcher Jason Kendall, the nine-year veteran and three-time All-Star. He relocated across America to Oakland. In return, the Pirates received pitchers Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. The Buc’s then turned around and sent Rhodes to the Indians in exchange for outfielder Matt “Solid Bat” Lawton. They also took a short-term measure to fill Kendall's shoes by dealing minor league pitcher Leo Nunez and cash to the Royals for ancient backstop Benito Santiago. If 25 years is a measurement used to title something an antique. Oh, never mind.

They also inked minor league contracts with a couple familiar names in outfielder Ben Grieve and pitcher Todd Ritchie. Leaving the club were shortstop Abraham Nunez, outfielder Tony Alvarez, first baseman Carlos Rivera, and pitchers Brian Boehringer and Frank Brooks.

Jack Wilson emerged from mediocrity to be an All-Star player in 2004, and the effort earned him a nice new contract this off-season. However, the shortstop also underwent an emergency appendectomy on December 21 and may miss the start of spring training. He lost 15 pounds following the surgery and only started swinging a bat in mid-January. Jack should be physically ready to start the season, but we'll be interested to see if his lack of off-season training is apparent this spring.

If the Pirates are going to scare anyone in the NL Central, they'll need starting pitcher Kip Wells to bounce back after a rough 2004. Wells experienced elbow pain and underwent carpal tunnel release surgery on his right middle finger in October. He began throwing in early January and reportedly looks and feels good, but as usual, we want to see him pitch in live action before declaring him safe for fantasy leagues.

Craig Wilson had a particularly productive spring as he hit eight home runs, the most by a Pirates player since the club began keeping exhibition records in 1986. Mark Johnson hit seven homers in 1997, and Aramis Ramirez matched that total in 2003. Wilson was hit 30 times by pitches last year. Craig Wilson lost his catcher eligibility in most fantasy leagues, but we're eager to see if the potential free agent-to-be still owns those long, golden locks. Although we can't prove it, we believe his hair holds the key to his power.

Fantasy owners will undoubtedly be surprised to learn that Benito Santiago is not the long-term answer at catcher. That tag belongs to J.R. House, who saw five games of action in 2004. The 40-year-old Santiago hit .311 after being acquired from Kansas City in an off-season trade. All joking aside, Santiago played in only 49 games and collected a miniscule 175 at-bats just yesterday – last season. The current plan has Santiago and Humberto Cota splitting the duties while House, who has one more option, gets more minor league seasoning, but if J.R. shoots out to a hot start this spring, he could win the job.

The Pirates do not have an actual player for first base and will sub Ward and Wilson there, not any help for an infielder. This is not very good news because it is the guy playing first who makes the other infielders keep low error numbers and the Pirates have nothing to offer. Expect many infield errors until that hole is fixed. That also will mean more base runners and many more pitches thrown by pitchers every day, be sure that takes it’s toll on every player in a full season.

Second baseman Jose Castillo looking to build on a solid rookie season in 2004, batted .329 with three homers and 11 RBIs. He has made a fairly successful leap from Double-A to the majors, and he followed up a decent campaign by dominating the Venezuelan Winter League. He finished second in the league with a .364 average and added in 10 homers, 38 RBI, and 41 runs over 54 games. That means Castillo is by far the leading candidate to start at second, but Bobby Hill and Freddy Sanchez are angling for the job as well. Hill and Sanchez can also play third base, but Ty Wigginton has a decent hold on that spot.

Third baseman Wigginton led the spring team in RBIs with 18 and appears poised for a breakout season. Wigginton hit only .220 with five homers and 24 RBIs in 58 games last season after being acquired from the Mets in a July 30 trade, but appears more relaxed this year and he lost 15 pounds over the winter. His bat is quicker and he is moving better in the field. The Pirates hoped to throw Mackowiak a starting job since he can handle all three outfield positions and third base. With Lawton, Wigginton, and National League Rookie of the Year Jason Bay all set in the lineup, Rob's only chance at winning a job in is center. Tike Redman plans to fight for his spot, and this is probably the most open position battle this spring and now one week in the season we can see how the competition has made Redman a better player. INF/OF Rob Mackowiak failed to wrest the starting center fielder's job away from Redman but wound up hitting a spring club-high .352 with three steals. The outfield situation might also undergo some changes if Grieve or Daryle Ward plays well enough to demand a starting spot. We doubt it will happen, but we're saying there's a chance.

The starting rotation is strong through four with a combination of Wells, Redman, Oliver Perez, and Josh Fogg. The fifth spot, however, will be a battle. Youngsters John Van Benschoten (shoulder surgery) and Sean Burnett (elbow surgery) are out of the running, but the team still has plenty of contenders in Ritchie, Ryan Vogelsong, and Dave Williams. The dark horse for the job (and possibly the fan favorite) is dynamic, 21-year-old lefty Zach Duke, who was the organization's minor league pitcher of the year in 2004.

Kip Wells gives you 26 quality starts per every 31 starts. Very good numbers but he cannot win many games playing for a team that will not win many games.

LHP Mark Redman was acquired from Oakland last November in a trade for Jason Kendall and came to the Pirates with the reputation of not dealing well with adversity. That became the case this spring as he had a 7.04 ERA in 23 innings and he became unglued when plays in the field weren't made behind him. The Athletics wanted rid of Redman for a reason, and the Pirates are quickly finding out why. A deeper look is needed, when Redman has pitched well for teams and he has had some terrific seasons he depends upon the fielders doing their job – no fastball here. He is a thinking mans pitcher and must work well with the men behind him. His problems in Oakland involved his lack of appreciation from any of the Oakland star pitchers.

Oliver Perez gives you 22 quality starts per every 31 starts. Good numbers but he cannot win many games playing for a team that will not win many games.

Josh Fogg gives you 15 quality starts per every 25 starts. Better-than-average numbers but he cannot win many games playing for a team that will not win many games.

Dave Williams – Please grab him now.

"This has been our best spring training, all in all," McClendon said. "I like the way our pitching shapes up. I think we're going to score more runs than people might think. "My biggest concern is if we're going to catch the ball. If we play good defense, I think we'll be fine. This is the best I've ever felt coming out of spring training. "We had a productive time in Florida, and I'm really looking forward to the start of the season. I'm excited. I think everyone is excited."

Forecast Last in it’s division without competition.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

It is very difficult to get excited by just a few better than the average ball players from a team known for nothing. Finding the right guy at the right time is hard enough but having to go to “study hall” to discover if a “Gem” wears a Tampa Bay uniform? Seeking to find that one guy the entire baseball world knew nothing about who is to become a baseball God? Never mind, it’s my dream not yours. If you bring into the equation no money other than revenue gets spent on the team, they play in a population supported by the retired and do this in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox…no one would know you existed.

The right side of the infield sets a new, yet veteran look. That had been the plan with sure-handed Travis Lee at first base and Robbie Alomar at second. This will be Lee's second adventure in Tampa. Then “Poof” Alomar announced his retirement in spring training. Both have had health issues in recent seasons, but barring spring training injury, Lee will be in the starting lineup on Opening Day and close to the bottom of the fantasy rankings at his respective position. He will be a power source but of most importance he will make all the Tampa Bay infielders far better fielders than they were before, his glove is vital for rookies such as B.J. Upton and Jorge Cantu.

Nick Green was acquired from the Brave’s when Alomar retired and his presence at second adds speed, hustle, runs and enthusiasm. But he has not been able to slow down the “attacking with all guns firing” rookie Jorge Cantu and his power displays in batting practice as well as during the games. And Green thought he was coming to play second for the next 10 years with TB.

Mega shortstop prospect B.J. Upton will have an opportunity to claim the starting job this spring, which would send Julio Lugo back into a reserve role or possibly to the trading block. There is a decent chance that Upton could start the season at Triple-A Durham; he's still just 20 years old. Upton's second base double-play partner of the future is Jorge Cantu, but he'll be resting the 15 pounds of muscle he added this off-season on the pine awaiting Alomar's demise. And then it happened, Alomar retired and Cantu showed he can-do. Cantu is a better infielder than Alomar today, because of youth, inexperience, no pains and more range. Cantu has a major upside in power; he will hit 20 homers this year or more. Grab him.

Third base will be handed to Alex Gonzalez this spring—the Alex Gonzalez who used to be with the Cubs…the shortstop? Yes, he'll be at third base. What? He's not a power-hitting third baseman? In his last 89 games Alex Gonzalez has hit 8 home runs. And where is Julio Lugo? Lugo collected 160 hits and drove-in 75 teammates without hitting 8 homers last year. He has had a problem at short each time he plays more than 100 games, but now he will have Lee to throw to. Playing every day he could even steal 30 bases. Lugo is a better player then most people know, he is a very good hitter, especially when a hit is needed, he draws walks at the right times as well and steals bases while wearing enough new muscle to drive 15 home runs too. If he is going to play every day pick him up as bench material.

Danny Bautista was to step into a corner outfield spot to take the place of Jose Cruz Jr., who was traded for left-handed reliever Casey Fossum, and then Bautista retired. The Devil Rays' real center fielder, Rocco Baldelli, a homegrown, up-and-coming star of sorts, will miss half the season. Fantasy owners should concentrate on the franchise's batch of young talent.

Without Baldelli catching all the balls in center, team-star Carl Crawford slides over from left. With Jose Cruz Jr. gone, left field is open now for occupancy. Aubrey Huff will end up in right field. Huff, who spent most of his time at third base last year, was going to move to first until Lee was signed. No matter where Huff plays in the field, he will be batting in the middle of the lineup, probably fourth. Thus, all we really know is that Crawford will lead off and Huff will bat in the middle. The rest is open.

Joey Gathright gets to play a year earlier than he should. Injuries created the opening for him, moving Crawford to center and him in left. His arm is less than average, he walks little, shows line-drive gap power and will stay right with Crawford steal for steal. He is a gamer, yet can lose concentration at the weirdest times.

The most intriguing of the bunch of outfielders from an immediate fantasy perspective are Matt Diaz and Jonny Gomes who will get a look. One more name to throw in the mix is Delmon Young, the first player taken in the 2003 draft and the younger brother of Dmitri Young; he is extremely close to being ready for the majors. He could be manning right field by the second half of the season.

The final outfield spot will also be up for grabs and there will be no shortage of useless contenders, including Tom Goodwin, Chris Singleton, Dee Brown, Marty Cordova, and Brian Buchanan.

It's not clear how much Charles Johnson will impact Toby Hall's playing time, but one would assume a deal wouldn't help either player's fantasy value. Either way stay away.

Write in Dewon Brazelton for one spot, at the top of the rotation. Keep a close eye on Scott Kazmir. The 21-year-old southpaw is considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and if he pitches up to his potential in March and April, he might find himself starting on Opening Day. Then again, he's only 21 and the Rays are a desperate team so expect him in the rotation. That's two. The other three will come from a list that includes Rob Bell, Doug Waechter, Mark Hendrickson, Seth McClung, Jimmy Haynes, Danny Neagle and H. Nomo.

With the end of the rotation still undecided, the team hooked lefty Denny Neagle and right-hander Hideo Nomo to join the competition. Neagle lasted 7 days before quitting. Another young arm to keep an eye on belongs to 2004 first round draft pick Jeff Neiman, who is a long shot to make the team out of spring training, but could be in the rotation by the end of the season.

Forecast This is the worst team of players in both leagues.