Who I'm Watching
Written by Jeremy Kempter
June 8, 2006

They began the year as one of the oldest – and certainly most injury-prone – clubs in the Majors. But after recently opening the flood gates from their abyssal-deep farm system, the Los Angeles Dodgers appear more baby blue than the dead-corpse hue they once wore. Last week, I highlighted the call-ups of Adam Ethier and Matt Kemp. Ethier has been limited in action, although Wednesday he hit a late pinch-hit run-scoring double to try to keep L.A. in it against the Mets, and Kemp has shown flashes of the athleticism that roto-heads drool over: four HRs, two SBs in just 33 ABs. He hit cleanup Wednesday and appears to be given a shot to play regularly, if he can continue to hit for average with that long, looping swing of his. But the Dodgers called up another intriguing prospect last week: the highly-touted Joel Guzman, all 6-foot-6 of him. Once a shortstop, Guzman had been playing left field and first base this spring, positions seemingly better suited for the lanky would-be slugger. However, since he’s been promoted, Guzman has played the hot corner -- and rather effectively --- even if he’s just keeping it warm until Andy LaRoche is ready. The only problem with Guzman this season is -- and like his size, it’s a tall order: he is suffering from a serious power outage. Such was the case in the minors this year, and in his 15 Major League at-bats, Guzman has just three singles, for a .200 average. Just 21 and raw, Guzman should have the opportunity to prove himself, and his pop, and if he starts stretching that cavernous ballpark with his bat, Guzman is definitely worth a long look from you, especially keeper-leaguers. As for the next Dodgers farm hand to look for, Chad Billingsley can’t be too far away after Odalis Perez’s disastrous outing Wednesday night. Here are 20 other high-risk, relatively high-reward options I’m mulling (with strong keeper consideration balanced with viable help for this year), be they crafty vets, green rookies, youngsters ready to break out or prospects about to come up. Bats: 1. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners – Sure, he has sucked since he signed with Seattle, but Beltre has shown some signs of life lately, and considering the 27-year-old hit 48 jacks with a .334 average just two years ago, Beltre is someone you have to seriously keep a close eye on. 2. Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees – He has been the complete opposite of the overwhelmed, wide-eyed prospect who got a callup last season. Cabrera made a game-saving catch earlier this week, and it sounds like he could he could stay in the second spot in the lineup even when Derek Jeter returns. When he has hit at the top of the order, Cabrera is 12-for-37, with eight RBI. 3. Omar Quintanilla, SS, Rockies – A line-drive, high-average hitter, Quintanilla was called up recently to challenge the struggling Clint Barmes for playing time. While Barmes has turned it up a notch, Jamey Carroll has actually been Quintanilla’s biggest nemesis, going 4-for-6 with a double and triple Wednesday. The 31-year-old Carroll certainly isn’t the answer long-term – especially with Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Nelson waiting in the wings – and he almost assuredly isn’t the solution for this season. So unless Barmes turns this around in a major way, look for Quintanilla’s lasers to benefit from Coors Field. 4. Aaron Hill, 2B-SS, Blue Jays – Here’s another short stop stopgap. Hill, much like Quintanilla, won’t hit for much power, but he could contribute a very weighty average if he continues to hit like he has since being moved from second base. 5. Andy Phillips, 1B, Yankees – New York has struggled to fill out a lineup with all the injuries its suffered this year, and guys like Cabrera and Phillips are reaping the benefits. Phillips, 29, has decent power – with three homers in the last week as evidence – and could flourish if he stays in the best lineup in baseball. 6. Gary Matthews Jr. – Since taking over the leadoff spot for the Rangers, Sarg has raked, compiling six multi-hit games in his last eight contests. He has the AL batting champ Michael Young hitting behind him, so Matthews can be picky, and it looks like he has, drawing 20 walks against 33 strikeouts to go with a .320 average. 7. Moises Alou, OF, Giants – He’s back from the DL and he is likely still available in your league. Alou is one of the most underrated outfielders in fantasy, particularly because he turns 40 next month, but he did hit .321 last year and he clubbed 39 homers the year before. 8. Willy Aybar, 3B-2B, Dodgers – With Guzman playing third for now, and Jeff Kent on the DL, Aybar will get a lot of at-bats at second and should already have eligibility, which could make him a very interesting player if he can stick with the big club. 9. Dan Johnson, 1B, A’s – He was a nice sleeper candidate heading into the year, after a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Johnson struggled so mightily out of the gate, though, most owners surely dropped him. He could be worth a flyer if he continues to get out of this funk and look like he did a year ago. 10. Matt Napoli, C, Angels – He fills the obligatory catcher quota for the week. But, honestly, Napoli has shown some offense flash since entering the fray. He’s just 24 and has four HRs and a .323 average in 62 ABs. ARMS: 1. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels – Yes, he’s 3-0 and everyone who owns him is probably enamored with the 6-foot-7 right-hander. But I submit his name here more as a cautionary tale: sell now. First off, little Weaver is not guaranteed to stay in the rotation once Bartolo Colon is back. (Manager Mike Scioscia said only that the rookie will not go to the bullpen, which could mean a return to the minors.) Secondly, and most importantly, Weaver has surrendered an alarmingly high rate of fly balls. Translation: contact that translates into HRs allowed. Wednesday, in an otherwise nice outing against the Devil Rays (6 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K), Weaver had a 13-1 flyout-to-groundball ratio. 2. Ian Snell, SP, Pirates – I know, his season numbers are painful to look at, even after his last 10-K, 1-ER performance. But he did just strike out 10, at Coors Field no less, and he’s been pretty effective in his last half-dozen starts. His minor league resume is impeccable and once he gets acclimated with MLB, he should be a good No. 2 or 3 starter. 3. Enrique Gonzalez, SP, Diamondbacks – He was outstanding in his first two starts, but Arizona shipped him back down anyway. However, after putting Juan Cruz on the DL, and Dustin Nippert getting shelled in his debut, Gonzalez is sure to get another start and should be worth giving the ball to. 4. Adam Loewen, SP, Orioles – He’s throwing Thursday against Toronto, and you’d be wise to pay close attention to how he does. He wasn’t bad in his debut against the Yankees and he was downright dominant in the WBC. Loewen is in the rotation on a start-by-start basis, the Orioles said earlier this week. 5. Alay Soler, SP, Mets – This Cuban defector was very sharp in his last outing. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but armed with a decent curveball and good control, and backed by that New York offense, Soler could be in line for double-digit wins in his rookie season. 6. Jamie Shields, Devil Rays – The 6-foot-4, 24-year-old righty was excellent in his second career start, going six innings with seven hits, six strikeouts and just two walks for his first win. He had success in the minors this year, too, so he could be for real if not an ace. 7. Bobby Keppel, Royals – This big (6-5), young (23) righty has been pretty good for lowly K.C. He threw eight inning of one-run ball in his last turn and has a miniscule 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings. He won’t fan anyone but he could aid your other stats for a while. 8. John Rheinecker, SP, Rangers – He’s a little old (27) to be getting his first shot at this, but Rheinecker’s other numbers are very impressive: 2-0, 1.77 ERA and most importantly a 13-1 K-to-BB ratio. 9. Esteban Loaiza, SP, A’s – He was just activated with Rich Harden going back on the mend, and Loaiza turned in his best performance of the year. Maybe in years. He went 7 IP, 4H, 1 ER, 5K, 1 BB. Remember, this is a guy who won 21 games in 2003. 10. Takashi Saito, RP, Dodgers – With Eric Gagne’s return to the DL imminent, Saito appears to be next in line for closing duty, what with Danys Baez having done himself a major disservice this season. I like Jonathon Broxton more, but Saito has seniority.