Written by Robert Burghardt
March 7, 2007
Source: mlb.com Hot Stove report

Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson Hudson required reconstructive elbow surgery last August, and that will keep him out at least a calendar year. He probably will not make more than a half dozen starts before the end of '09. Jair Jurrjens Jurrjens (23) represents a great value on Draft Day. He projects as a top-of-the rotation starter, and a repeat of his rookie numbers (13 wins, 3.68 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP) will make picking him up worthwhile. Javier Vazquez Vazquez struggled at U.S. Cellular in ‘08, going 12-16 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, he still had 200 strikeouts in 208 1/3 innings. He ranks ninth among all active pitchers with 2,015 career strikeouts. The move to Atlanta will probably help rather than hinder his statistical output. Consider him a low-end number three starter for your rotisserie rotations in 2009. Jorge Campillo After Tommy John surgery, Campillo went 8-7 with an ERA under 4.00, and will have a rotation spot in Atlanta to lose this spring. Consider him a sleeper starter to pick up on Draft Day. Jo-Jo Reyes Reyes went 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA, 78 Ks, and 1.65 WHIP in 113 innings for Atlanta in 2008. Although he has room for improvement and youth on his side (24), he has yet to indicate that he can succeed beyond being a #5 starter in the Braves’ rotation. Charlie Morton Morton (25) went 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in Triple-A, but he did not match those numbers when the Braves inserted him into their rotation: 4-8/6.15/1.63 - although injuries to his shoulder and back can have affected those numbers. He might get the fifth spot on the Braves’ rotation, or he might go back to AAA to work on his repertoire. Expect to see him starting for the Braves sometime in ’09 – sooner rather than later. Rafael Soriano The expect elbow woes prevented Soriano from becoming the Braves’ closer last year, and they have him back on the injury-risk watch list. Consider him a sleeper for saves, but he projects more as a middle relief option for his ERA and WHIP. Mike Gonzalez Gonzalez proved that he was healthy (post-Tommy John surgery) and capable of being the Braves' closer by the end of September. Consider him an injury-risk sleeper for saves on Draft Day. At a minimum, he should pick up a dozen saves for you and the Braves. Chicago Cubs Rich Harden Harden went 10-2 in 25 starts over 148 innings for the Athletics and Cubs last year. When he is healthy (a rarity), nobody pitches better. Can he pitch 200 innings in ’09? He pitched 148 last year, and prior to that, he pitched over 150 only one other time: 2004. If you draft him, you will get excellent ERA and WHIP stats. If he stays healthy, you hit the jackpot. Ryan Dempster Dempster switched from effective closer to effective starter last year with the Cubs. He delivered by going 17-6 with a 2.97 ERA while pitching over 200 innings – what can’t this guy do? He also averaged almost a strikeout per inning. Draft him with confidence. Ted Lilly Lilly pitches for the Cubs, one of the best teams in baseball. You can count on him to pitch 200 innings, an established precedent, and to earn 15+ victories. He set a career highs in victories (17) and strikeouts (184) each of the past two years. Draft him as a solid #2 starter with acceptable WHIP and ERA numbers. Carlos Marmol With Kerry Wood gone to the Indians, Marmol has first crack at the closer’s job at Wrigley. He had another solid season as setup man for the Cubs in ‘08, with seven saves and a career-best 0.93 WHIP. Expect to see him go among the first half-dozen NL closers on Draft Day. Carlos Zambrano Zambrano suffered from a sore elbow in the second half of last year, when he went 4-3 with a 5.80 ERA. He had a great first half, going 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA. Check reports on him this spring - if his elbow no longer troubles him, expect the 27-year-old pitcher to win 15+ games, and to have an ERA much closer to 3.00 than to 4.00. Luis Vizcaino The well-traveled Vizcaino went 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in 43 games last season for the Rockies. He has a career 4.34 ERA over 10 seasons, a stat that he will probably continue to post along his journeyman career - this year at Wrigley. Jeff Samardzija With Jason Marquis gone to Colorado, Samardzija looks to compete for the Cubs’ No. 5 starter's job out of spring training; though he probably will work as a setup man to start the season. He has potential top-of-the-rotation stuff. Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd Can Floyd repeat his 2008 performance ... in Chicago this year? He posted a 17-8 record and a 3.84 ERA for the White Sox in '08. Although he lost some of his pep at the end of the year, he allowed only 190 hits in 206 1/3 innings over 33 starts. He fanned 145 and walked 70. Essentially, he converted his potential ability into positive results, and turns 26 this spring. If he falters some, he should not collapse. Cleveland Indians Carl Pavano Pavano signed a one-year deal with the Indians after a disappointing, injury-plagued four-year stint with the Yankees. Maybe Pavano can recapture in Cleveland the success that he had in Florida before signing with New York. Last year he appeared in seven games and went 4-2 with a 5.77 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old pitcher performed well enough for the Yankees in August and September – he just might do it for a full season in the Indians' rotation. Colorado Rockies Jason Marquis Marquis will probably get double-digit wins, and post an okay, not great, ERA and WHIP for the Rockies. He has a career ERA of 4.55 (he posted an ERA of 4.53 last year for the Cubs) and a career WHIP of 1.42. Those numbers will probably go up in his new home at Colorado. Florida Marlins Ricky Nolasco Nolasco made a tremendous comeback from injury by winning 15 games with a solid 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP along with 186 strikeouts over 212 innings in ’08. He also posted a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Can he reproduce those stats in ’09? He was injured in ’07 - and he did well in his rookie year with 11 wins in '06 ... The risk for '09 does not seem unreasonable. Chris Volstad Volstad pitched like a solid big league starter for the Marlins last season. He won six of his 14 starts and posted excellent stats: 2.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The 22-year-old probably will not pitch 200, or even 150, innings in '09, but he has great long-term potential – and one who will take some lumps like 99% of all young pitchers. Josh Johnson The 25-year-old Tommy John surgery survivor projects as a solid #2 starter or even as staff ace. Johnson ended ’08 with three straight September victories, and you can expect the trend to continue. Leo Nunez Consider the 25-year-old Nunez as a sleeper to pick up saves now that the team has traded erstwhile closer Kevin Gregg in a cost-cutting deal. Nunez posted solid ERA and WHIP stats for the Royals, and will probably do at least the same for the Marlins. Matt Lindstrom After trading Kevin Gregg to the Cubs, the Marlins appear ready to hand the closer's role to Lindstrom this spring. He has the makeup of a top closer, though the Marlins don't guarantee many spots to many people for very long. Andrew Miller Miller ended '08 as a reliever, but you can project the 23-year-old pitcher as a starter in the Marlins' rotation. Expect to see a solid strikeout ratio (> 7K per 9 IP) ... and some great performances to go along with some head-scratching starts - attributable to youth. Anibal Sanchez Sanchez stopped pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League in early December after two ineffective starts. He has had shoulder problems in the past, so factor that in your decision to draft him this spring. The 25-year-old starter still has time to prove himself; however, he does not project as more than a middle of the rotation hurler. New York Mets Johan Santana Santana had a 16-7 record, struck out 206 batters, had a 2.54 ERA, and recorded his highest WHIP (1.15) since 2002 during his first year with the Mets … Okay. Who pitched better? Who will reap more victories in 2009 now that the Mets got late inning studs, Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, this winter? Santana might get 20 wins. Draft with confidence. Francisco Rodriguez Rodriguez saved a record 62 games in just over 68 innings of work for the Angels last year. He did that despite recording the highest WHIP of his career, and giving up a career-high 54 hits. That makes him human. If you need a closer, draft him. Mike Pelfrey Pelfrey can bring the heat (96 MPH), and he did keep the ball in the yard last year – he gave up only 12 home runs over 200 innings. He did tire in September (no surprise), but you can expect improvement in ’09. Consider the 25-year-old hurler a strong sleeper. J.J. Putz Former Mariner closer Putz will now be setting up for K-Rod in New York at Shea. Putz might pick up a few saves in New York, and/or he might get traded to a place where he can close again – because he can close. John Maine Maine shut it down on August 23rd after having notched 10 victories, to go along with the 15 the year before in New York. His shoulder required non-invasive surgery to shave down bone spurs, which you do not want your pitchers to have. However, if he somehow overcomes these shoulder ailments, he can show once again that he can pitch like an ace-in-waiting. Bobby Parnell The Mets have options with Parnell. He can start. The team also considered using him as a closer after Billy Wagner was injured. He probably will not emerge as the #5 starter, but he might end up in the rotation by the end of the year. Jon Niese The 22-year-old Niese will contend for the No. 5 starter's spot in the Mets’ rotation out of spring training, but he might end up in Triple-A at the beginning of the year. Look at him as more of a keeper for the future. Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels Hamels threw over 200 innings for the first time and posted career bests in ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.08) to go along with his 14 wins. He should garner more than 14 wins this year and the other numbers will probably get better too. Brad Lidge Lidge pitched practically perfectly last year, saving 41 games in 41 chances. The change in scenery from Houston to World Series Champion Philadelphia before the season began did him good. Consider him just outside the top five closers, and draft with confidence. Jamie Moyer The 46-year-old Moyer went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 33 starts last season. He has gone 35-21 with a 4.33 ERA in 74 starts since the Phillies acquired him from Seattle in August 2006. He won’t go away. Expect him to get 15 wins, but with few strikeouts, and with borderline acceptable stats in ERA and WHIP. Kyle Kendrick Kendrick pitched well before the ASG last year, but fared terribly post-ASG: he went 3-6 with a 7.59 ERA. With youth and now experience on his side, expect him to fight and win a rotation spot for the Phillies this spring – and to thrive on a pennant-contender. Joe Blanton Blanton pitches like a workhorse, and though his numbers from ’08 don’t look great, he went 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA after going to Philadelphia (from Oakland). With the Phillies for a full season, he can win 15 games and post respectable peripheral stats. Brett Myers Myers returned to the Phillies’ rotation in ’08 after acting as the team’s stopgap closer the year before. He did a respectable job, picking up 10 wins to go along with acceptable ERA and WHIP (4.55/1.38). As he enters the prime years of his career, he should post numbers worthy of a top 40 starter for a pennant contender. Washington Nationals John Lannan Lannan won nine games for the Nationals in ’08 – making him the staff ace. He should pick up more wins in '09, and post a solid ERA and WHIP numbers - as he did the previous year. Joel Hanrahan Hanrahan became the Nationals’ closer in July when the team traded Jon Rauch. After a strong August, Hanrahan stumbled in September - so the team might not hand the closer's job to him before Spring Training. Consider him a low-end sleeper for saves. Scott Olsen Coming to Washington from Florida, the 25-year-old Olsen gives the Nationals a reliable starter every fifth day. His strikeout totals have dropped two years in a row, and he has not got his ERA below 4.00. However, he has youth on his side, and the change of scenery might do him good. Collin Balester Pitching prospect Balester has a shot at winning a rotation spot this spring with the perennially rebuilding Nationals. Consider the 22-year-old hurler as a sleeper (a risky sleeper in Washington) on Draft Day. Daniel Cabrera Cabrera has promised for four years and not delivered; last year his strikeout rate went down. He has control and self-control issues. Will he ever become what he should? If you draft the 27-year-old pitcher for your fantasy team, consider the real ramifications. Shawn Hill Hill has the injury bug. He had bone spurs and calcium deposits scraped from his right elbow after his season ended early last year. Consider him an injury-risk sleeper – who pitches for the Nationals - on Draft Day. Robert Burghardt is the founder and president of TG Fantasy Baseball, providing free fantasy baseball player news and information since 1995. TG Fantasy Baseball has also spawned two subsidiary fantasy sports sites, the RotoUmpire, resolving fantasy league disputes since 2000 and RotoLeague, a customizable fantasy software product. For contact information, please visit http://www.thomasgeorge.com/baseball/contact.cfm

Copyright © 2009 Web Design by ThomasGeorge.com
Statistical content Copyright © 2009, The Sports Network. Distributed by XML Team Solutions